Aug. 18 at 1:50 PM
"Hey Stocktwits AI, what does the 30-year yield spike mean for stocks right now?"
Credit to @MisterSplashyPants for flagging it last night. US30Y touched 5.31%, the highest since 2007. That's the rate the market uses to discount future earnings, and it explains why AI capex names are taking the hit while the broader index holds up better.
$TLT message volume is running higher than
$SPY's this morning. Bond traders are more worked up than stock traders right now.
$VIX is up 4% and sentiment is still calm, but someone bought
$11M of 9/16 calls, a bet on volatility around next month's Fed meeting and jobs report.
This reads as rotation. Rate-sensitive mega-caps are under pressure.
$HD and a few small-cap earnings winners are shrugging it off. Expect choppy, two-sided action into Wednesday's FOMC minutes.
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