Jun. 25 at 10:15 AM
$DKNG DraftKings Predictions is available across 38 states, including sports event contracts in states like California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas â all places where DraftKings' traditional sportsbook cannot legally operate. So in Texas, Railbird isn't just paying lower taxes than a sportsbook would â DraftKings couldn't even run a sportsbook there at all. Prediction markets are opening a market that was previously completely closed to them, with essentially no state tax drag.
Citizens estimates that DraftKings could generate approximately
$1 billion in annual prediction market revenue by 2030, with the business potentially worth between
$10 billion at 20% market share and
$14 billion at 30% market share. A meaningful chunk of that comes from large no-tax or low-tax states like Texas and Florida that were previously inaccessible. The combination of zero state gaming tax and a previously untapped addressable market is exactly what makes the Railbird thesis so compelling to analyst
