Jan. 16 at 6:08 PM
$RIOT Today I initiated a position in Riot.
The thesis will expand to seven operators by this weekend or early next week depending on bandwidth. RIOT brings something the others don't: a chipmaker as counterparty. AMD isn't a hyperscaler. They're a company with strategic motivation to build inference capacity outside NVIDIA's ecosystem. The 10-year lease, the expansion options to 200 MW, the fee simple land acquisition funded by selling Bitcoin from treasury. These are the moves of a company pivoting, not hedging.
I have two deliverables for the community. First, updating the thesis itself to incorporate RIOT and reflect recent developments across the other operators. Second, the pipeline page. Tracking 600+ MW of contracted capacity across multiple operators, with delivery dates, counterparties, and revenue recognition triggers, requires structure the current site doesn't have. The content isn't the bottleneck. The architecture is. I'm rebuilding as I go.
This is a solo operation. The pace reflects that constraint. But stale research is worse than no research. The thesis only works if it stays current. If the milestones get tracked, if the contracts get updated, if the falsification triggers get monitored. That's the commitment I made.
The community support matters more than I can articulate. When someone says the thesis clarified something they'd been circling, that lands. When someone shares it with a colleague who then reaches out with questions, the pattern spreads. That's the point. Not building an audience. Placing eyes on an asymmetry that the market hasn't fully processed. The more people who see the mechanism, the more the thesis gets tested. Power scarcity, contracted revenue, structural mispricing. Tested theses either break or strengthen. Both outcomes are useful.
The goal isn't for me to prosper alone. It's for the pattern to be visible enough that anyone who looks can evaluate it for themselves.
May we all prosper together.
