Feb. 18 at 11:00 PM
$RIOT under
$12 I like as a high risk, high reward LT investment.
Starboard is forcing their pivot toward AI infra + power. The 25MW
$AMD deal over 10 yrs =
$311M revenue. They control ~1.7GW. If they can scale most of that on similar terms, there's
$2B+ revenue potential, 3–4x their 600M TTM revenue, with operating leverage vs pure BTC mining.
Instead of being hostage to BTC cycles, they become a power/data center operator and can still allocate cash flows to BTC. They turn into a sustainable operating business, and a pseudo treasury vs
$MSTR who hopes return on capital will be higher than their cost of debt.
If the market rerates them to ~15x EV/EBITDA or ~10x sales, even at a discount to
$IREN, you’re looking at ~
$20B mkt cap and a ~
$60 stock.
This is mostly an execution bet on their ability to pull off the pivot. If they do, I think the upside is 3x or more so I like the RR
