Jan. 5 at 8:55 AM
Thoughts on
$ONDS
I don’t think
$ONDS is a bad company. The challenge is visibility.
Without clearer disclosure on the growth trajectory of its recent acquisitions, it’s hard to justify a terminal valuation much beyond
$10–15B by ~2035. With a ~
$4B market cap today, that doesn’t mean there’s no upside — but it does raise the question of whether it can materially outperform the market, not just go up.
That said, context matters.
The acquisitions are still early, and
$ONDS now has >
$400M in capital, which could meaningfully accelerate organic growth and integration. Management has also indicated further M&A, which could lift the EBITDA profile into 2030–2035.
Net: upside exists, but a
$100B outcome is not underwritten with current information. Execution and the acquisition pipeline will determine whether the story re-rates.
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