Aug. 17 at 8:49 PM
$ONDS THE ER reset expectations and Q3 is now looking materially stronger, the risk/reward has changed. I think informed holders are anchoring to a much much higher valuation and simply aren’t interested in offering shares for anything below
$15.
The more interesting question isn’t whether shorts can push it below a certain number —it’s whether there’s actually meaningful supply below the market anymore.
If you’re being honest, you know the company is derisked, and the Q3 setup is as strong as the market is anticipating. retail shorts you may simply be delaying the inevitable. The question is how much upside are you giving up by continuing to fight the tape instead of repositioning with it?
If the post-ER valuation has holders anchored materially higher, therefore the short thesis becomes more about finding willing sellers. That’s usually where positioning starts to rotate.
At some point, the smarter trade may be to stop fighting the setup and join the side that’s positioned for where you know this is going.
