Jun. 18 at 6:12 AM
$STLA Part 4
Reasons no to Buy cont.
• Structurally Lower Margins: Even assuming a successful turnaround, STLA is not projected to reclaim its historical profitability peaks. EBITDA margins fell from 16.8% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2025 and 2027 forecasts a recovery to only 8.0% . This suggests the era of double-digit margins may be permanently over due to increased structural costs, delayed commodity shocks, and EV pricing pressures.
• High Capex: Despite the strain on profitability and cash, STLA cannot reduce its investments without falling behind in the global EV race. Capex is forecasted to remain high at €9.4 bn in 2026 and €9.67 bn in 2027, creating a heavy and unavoidable cash burden.
• Execution Risk: STLA must successfully launch its 2026 vehicle lineup at full margin while navigating the oil-crisis cost spikes. Any macroeconomic weakness, failure to absorb the geopolitical inflation, or inability to fend off cheap Chinese EV imports could invalidate optimistic forecasts.
