Apr. 20 at 4:49 PM
$ETSY — Parabolic Into First Real Resistance 🎯
15m chart decode:
The setup:
• +34% in 20 sessions off
$47 March 24 CHoCH
• Tagged Weak High / 1.0 fib @
$63.47 this morning
• Sitting in Premium zone above
$57.55 equilibrium
• Clean BOS sequence up, but each leg shorter
The warning signs:
🔴 RSI 74.11 — overbought, bearish cross forming
🔴 Volume faded into the top (weak participation)
🔴 Momentum diverged from price at Weak High
🔴 Buying here = chasing a parabola at first resistance
Two paths:
🟢 Direct break (lower probability without volume):
$63.47 →
$64.75 →
$67.31 →
$73.58 (1.618 ext)
🟡 Pullback first (higher probability, better R/R):
Reject
$63.47 → retrace
$62.42 →
$61.41 →
$58 Equilibrium → bounce → resume to
$73.58
My plan:
Not chasing here. Waiting for pullback to
$58-60 zone.
Re-entry on reclaim of
$61.50 with stop below
$57.55
T1
$63.47 | T2
$67.31 | T3
$73.58
R/R math:
• Chase entry
$63.45: ~1:1 to T1 (bad)
• Pullback entry
$58.50: ~2:1 to T1, 6:1 to T3 (good)
Invalidation: Lose
$57.55 = structural break to
$52.66 /
$47
Options angle:
$65/
$70 call credit spread into the reject, or
$60/
$65 debit spread on pullback. Rich IV at RSI 74.
Process over prediction. Risk-first, always.
NFA. DYOR.
