Aug. 24 at 2:43 PM
$SEH Shin-Etsu Handotai (SEH), SUMCO, GlobalWafers, Siltronic — the four global leaders for 300 mm wafers (Micron does not disclose which it buys in each fab). GlobalWafers is building large U.S. 300 mm capacity with CHIPS subsidies; Siltronic opened new 300 mm capacity; SUMCO is adjusting mix/capacity. Industry baseline, with concrete market/capacity evidence. SEH is a stealth bomber, not on the radar. Lead-lag; edge, because of information asymmetry due to noisy signals (not for me): Equipment (ASML, TEL, LRCX, KLA) typically lead MU: bookings/backlog inflect before MU’s named allocations translate to shipments; that’s the phase-transition edge.
Materials (SEH) often move with or slightly after MU: LTAs and pricing/mix tighten as wafer starts ramp.
$MU additional supply chain players that profit from Microns upwards trend, but wait, there are more and better opps (teaser), but for now..: KLA
$TEL $ASML $LRCX $MU
