Apr. 25 at 9:34 PM
$APLD $SMCI $SPY
A deal does not mean a deal, and cancelled does not mean cancelled.
This is how negotiations play out. Lots of lies, propaganda, and threats.
I assume many here are traders, and even if not, probably not professional negotiators. As a former attorney, I negotiated plenty of deals, and I regret to inform you that some of THE best deals made involved THE most lies, threats, and propaganda. It's pure mental warfare. On a personal note, I think I lied so much that I started to get worried that I might go directly to hell if I lied just once more 🤣. So I left. Other partners stayed and accepted their fate in hell. 🤣
Look guys, Trump is a good negotiator. He does have many faults, but like any man, he has some strong suits. We all do. He knows this game well. The bluster, the lies, the on-and-off messages, etc., may appear confusing, but that is what it looks like. It's all about who will blink first, and to that effect, as they say, all is fair in love and war—especially lies.
I am being very candid here, especially about my own former profession, but the truth is what matters.
The problem for Trump, in a way, is that he is being undermined by his own countrymen. That makes negotiating tough. If you notice, his counterparts are normally unified in voice. They do not undermine their own because they do not want to give the opposition any leverage. Can you imagine playing poker, and your family member who is looking over your shoulder makes a face when you raise, calling into question why you did that?
If I were negotiating a settlement and one of the associates made a remark that undermined what I said in the heat of negotiations, in order to be "truthful," I am sure I would physically throw them out—although that has not happened yet.
My point is that smart money has caught on to the fact that Trump will say anything to have leverage, the way he has done for decades in his private dealings and even litigations.
Retail is surprised and unsure, focusing on lies, when lies are what it takes. You don't think the Iranians are lying? 🤣
Trump wants to make a deal, and he has his way. Normally it works, and when it doesn't, then it's TACO time. And we go through a few rounds. It seems chaotic but it's round by round.
In this case, because he used nuclear weapons as the basis for attack, the deal must include no nuclear enrichment. He can agree to almost all else, but that he needs to have. It is a must. He can't do a deal without it, or else it would be a total joke—more than it already is.
The Iranians have waged a war against the US market, and Bessent is somehow managing it with Trump's tweets or lies or whatever you want to call it.
Bottom line: the lies don't indicate confusion; they are an essential tool in mental warfare.
I have no idea what will happen, but what I have observed thusfar is normal in negotiations. Will they work on an international level as well as they work in smaller settings? We will find out.
So far, Trump has managed to walk on water in some instances despite engaging in high-risk, high-reward games with his own balls, mine yours 🤣. That I am not in agreement with but it is what it is. I agree with some other aspects. It is not all or nothing for me. I see good and bad in everything.
One thing is for sure: in some ways he is very predictable; in some ways he is totally unconventional.
I think we are closer to a deal than not. It sure seems to me he wants one badly. I don't blame him.
Have a wonderful weekend !
