Dec. 5 at 11:16 AM
$WFG - West Fraser Timber: Alpha Report (Technicals + Fundamentals + Risks)
1) Technicals: Early Trend Shift off Multi-Month Lows
Strong bounce off
$56–58 support after 3 month selling cycle.
RSI 52.7, trending higher = momentum rebuilding.
MACD histogram flipped green -> bullish turn after long red stretch.
10/20/30/50 SMA = Buy, but 100/200 SMA still overhead (long term trend still down).
Volume uptick confirms rotation back into
$WFG.
=> Reversion toward
$65–70 likely if lumber pricing stabilizes.
2) Fundamentals: Cyclical Pressure but Revenues Stable
Quarterly revenue holds
$1.29–1.56B despite macro softness (Q3 2025:
$1.29B).
Gross profit weak (Q3: -
$122M) due to lumber price compression + cost inflation.
Operating income TTM: -
$109M, net income TTM: -
$244M -> cyclical bottom dynamics.
Analysts remain optimistic: 6 Strong Buys, avg PT
$88.29 (+42%), high PT
$110.
=> Earnings are cyclically depressed, not structurally broken.
