Dec. 10 at 6:21 PM
March 2026 COMEX setup is a potential
$SLV time bomb
Core issue lies in the divergence b/n the physical & paper markets
On one side are mined ounces, refinery output, industrial demand, & sovereign stockpiles.
On the other is a tower of futures, options, forwards, & OTC swaps referencing silver, but not necessarily backed by metal.
In practical terms, this is equivalent to 593.9M ozs of physical silver (March open interest: 118,783 × 5,000 = 593,915,000 ozs)
This divergence means that the "tower" of paper claims can vastly exceed the available physical supply
Silver mine production has been decreasing for the past 10 years, especially in Central & South America, due to mine closures, resource depletion & infrastructure challenges.
Global mine production flat this year (~813Moz) but scrap supply will contribute to total supply up ~1% (1, 117Moz)
Industrial demand for silver is expected to decline slightly but ETP demand will create a deficit of ~95Moz this year
$WPM $PAAS $AG $RGLD