Jul. 26 at 7:16 AM
$NFE Bull Case
My bull case assumes:
• EBITDA grows from
$415M → ~
$550M by 2030 (10% CAGR)
• 10x EV/EBITDA • Equity value of ~
$5B
If preferred is retired before conversion:
• 0% retired: ~
$0.80/share
• 10% retired: ~
$0.87/share
• 25% retired: ~
$1.02/share
• 50% retired: ~
$1.41/share
• 100% retired: ~
$6.13/share (maximum theoretical scenario)
The key isn't just EBITDA—it's capital allocation. Assets are already built, debt has been dramatically reduced, and if strong free cash flow plus future refinancing allow management to retire preferred before conversion, dilution falls and per-share value rises.
Illustrative valuation scenarios only—not forecasts or price targets. Actual outcomes will depend on execution, cash generation, financing conditions, and capital allocation. DYODD.
