Mar. 30 at 2:50 PM
Watching
$SPX alongside private credit names like
$CG,
$BX,
$APO, and
$ARES on my dashboard right nowâand the relationship is hard to ignore.
Historically, credit markets and the S&P 500 move in lockstep. When credit tightens or weakens, equities tend to follow.
But hereâs the interesting part
Post the tariff-driven selloff, both ralliedâbut from Sept through Nov, a divergence emerged. The S&P pushed to higher highs while private credit names lagged, printing lower highs.
That gap between equities and credit is still very much present today.
Lower panel (credit spreads) and NASDAQ net highs/lows are also flashing important signals about underlying risk appetite.
This is where things get interestingâbecause when these relationships break or reconnect, markets tend to move fast.
Not a predictionâjust watching the structure and letting the data lead.
Letâs see which side closes the gap first.
