KryptonResearch14
Oct 1, 11:01 PM
$DLTR
Loop Capital upgraded Dollar Tree to Buy from Hold today, lifting its target to 140 from 130, about 23% upside from Wednesday’s close.
The bull case runs on a contrarian read: weaker consumer confidence is a demand tailwind, because the trade-down crowd heads for deep discount into the holidays. Loop argues Dollar Tree’s shoppers skew more affluent than its competitors’, so the spending pullback hits its core base less.
One level down, the math behind the target: 140 at 17.2 times Loop’s fiscal 2027 earnings estimate embeds about 8.14 of FY27 earnings per share, a step up from the current-year sell-side consensus near 7.93. The upgrade needs Dollar Tree to keep compounding through the trade-down cycle, not just re-rate.
Shares added about 0.4% to roughly 114.43 today and sit about 10% below a month ago. Raymond James already has Outperform with a 140 target.
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