Aug. 9 at 8:15 PM
$TNXP Here’s why I’m expecting Q2 revenue in the
$10-11M range.
Symphony shows roughly
$14.9M in TONMYA gross sales during Q2.
In Q1, Symphony gross sales were roughly
$7.1M, while TONMYA reported
$3.7M in net sales. That implies an observed conversion of roughly 52% from Symphony gross sales to reported TONMYA net revenue.
Apply the same ratio to Q2:
$14.9M × 52% =
$7.8M TONMYA net sales
Then add roughly
$3M+ from the migraine portfolio, which has been generating around that level quarterly.
That gets you to roughly:
$10.8-11M total Q2 revenue
Even using a substantially more conservative gross-to-net assumption, I still get comfortably above the
$7.7M consensus.
So my base case isn’t built on hype. It’s simply extrapolating the relationship between Symphony data and TONMYA’s actual Q1 reported sales.
$10-11M is where I think Q2 lands. If so, that’s a very meaningful beat.
And with weekly TRx approaching 1,000 by late July, Q3 is already starting from a much higher base.
🔥
