Feb. 23 at 3:04 PM
$RDW presents a textbook structural mispricing heading into earnings. Wall Street models are broken. Analysts slashed Q4 estimates over U.S. budget delays, completely ignoring that Edge Autonomy's European footprint and continuous direct-to-Ukraine order fulfillment bypassed the gridlock entirely. Even without the unannounced H2 wins, their legacy space operations keep them on track for adjusted guidance.
Strict defense accounting means the newly uncovered
$100M+ in U.S. reseller orders will drive a massive spike in funded backlog. When Q1 2026 guidance drops, it will force an aggressive rewrite of Wall Street's forward models.
The recent price compression to
$8 on historically massive volume strongly suggests management aggressively exercised the ATM offering. Wednesday should reveal a cash-rich balance sheet. With the dilution overhang removed, institutional selling exhausted, and a war chest ready to execute the 2026 backlog, the artificial ceiling is gone.
This is a bull thesis