Jun. 24 at 5:03 PM
$RIG A Measured Strike, Not an Escalation
According to New York Times reporter Farnaz Fassihi, Iranian officials coordinated the strike in advance with Qatari authorities . Sources familiar with the plan described it as a symbolic response designed to avoid significant escalation.
Objective was to signal strength while minimizing the chance of escalation into uncontrollable conflict.
Oil markets appear to have interpreted that restraint as a sign that significant escalation is unlikely in the short term. The fact that oil prices fell sharply after the news broke also indicates that traders viewed the immediate threat of a widening war as diminished.
Risk Premium Evaporates—For Now
In the lead-up to Iran’s response, oil prices had risen on fears of a significant response. But once the strike materialized and appeared measured, the market began to unwind that risk premium.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2025/06/23/why-oil-prices-fell-after-irans-missile-strike/
