Aug. 1 at 5:49 PM
$NCLH @Beluisa1 mentioned about the 2 consecutive days drop so but it has not dropped per that criteria. so let's look at a couple of scenarios...
1) At roughly
$18.53, NCLH is down about 12%–13% from the recent
$21.10–
$21.25 area, but it still has not generated his precise two-day signal.
For it to trigger next session, NCLH would need another closing decline of at least 5%, which from
$18.53 would mean approximately:
$18.53 × 0.95 =
$17.60
Interestingly, that would put price right at the top of the remaining
$17.15–
$17.80 daily gap.
So yes—his scenario could literally trigger if NCLH flushes into the last gap on Monday.
Historical averages
Across these six examples:
Average combined two-day decline: -15.1%
Median combined decline: -13.6%
Median time to regain the pre-drop close: 12.5 trading days
Average time to recover: 19 trading days
Median gain required from the second-day low to fully recover: +15.7%
So the typical pattern was:
continues in comments...
