Sep. 11 at 8:12 PM
$NCLH found some interesting information today- our current multiple based on a
$1.50 EPS (Revised down by NCLH) is 9.9X. NCLH has historically traded at a multiple between 11x-14x pre-pandemic. Regardless, based on historical forward multiples, an 11x is
$17.40 and a 14x is
$21. Revision has already been baked into stock price. Fuel cost drag has accounted for an ~ -
$0.33 and missteps made by self-inflicted marketing errors through management (and other line items) equate to ~ -
$0.28. These are things we already know... but if we see a continued softening in bookings reported throughout 2027 and softer near term net yields causing EPS to degrade further below this
$1.50- we better be ready for some looooong hurt... fuel cost is temporary in my opinion but many other headlines to be looking for in the next ER.
