Feb. 20 at 5:55 PM
$BMBL
The Imminent Catalyst: A discounted settlement of Bumble's
$419M Tax Receivable Agreement (TRA) liability will trigger massive non-cash earnings beat. This headline jump will draw market attention to BMBL's underlying value.
Debt De-Risking: The TRA settlement clears the capital structure, prompting an S&P upgrade to 'B+'. This likely signals an imminent, favorable refinancing of the upcoming Term Loan, extinguishing bankruptcy fears.
Accounting Illusion: Poor GAAP earnings are heavily skewed by UP-C private equity conversion mechanics. Purchase accounting forced large asset write-ups, and subsequent non-cash impairments of those assets (and
$562M of impaired Deferred Tax Assets) artificially depressed earnings.
Massive Valuation Disconnect: BMBL’s Enterprise Value is just 2.75x my adjusted Free Cash Flow estimate, and equity trades at 1.5x FCF. Valuations are currently 1/5 to 1/4 of competitor Match Group (MTCH), despite Bumble having less relative debt.
