May. 8 at 7:02 PM
We saw this tape right after Q4’25 prints — same setup, same reflexive move. Yes, growth is decelerating, and I’ve already said it:
$TOST is not going back to its peak multiple regime.
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But at these levels, it starts to shift away from “growth de-rating” and closer to a value-style mispricing.
I think the market is overreacting here. Toast is still a high-quality execution story with sticky restaurant penetration, strong retention, and solid unit economics underneath the noise.
Meanwhile instead of
$FOUR getting a clean rerating, we’re seeing the opposite — peer multiples compressing across the board. That’s not single-name deterioration, that’s sector-wide derisking and liquidity rotation.
Not calling a bottom, but risk/reward is finally starting to look a lot more rational than it did a few weeks ago.
