Apr. 8 at 3:25 AM
$TOST my thoughts:
Feb food sales: +.4%, feb retail sales: .6%
restaurants underperformed.
gas prices affected seafood heavily in March, but food costs in general will rise.. I expect crude to stay above
$80/bbl for a while, meaning 3% inflation, meaning no rate cuts this year. not good
Tost has been great at adding locations, but the ARPU growth sucks. I don't expect it to improve much over the next year really. not in this environment.
market cap per location is back to 2022 levels, where the economic outlook was probably equally rough as it is today.
my outlook here is toast stays rangebound between low 30s and the mid/low 20s. I think their revenue growth just isn't good enough to get to 40 without significantly better macro conditions, unless earnings really surprise.
In the meantime this gets sold off w/ the rest of growth stocks on high inflation numbers and bought back on high unemployment
