Apr. 18 at 12:11 PM
$TGB /
$TKO — this is what a full-cycle re-rate setup looks like
Market is still asleep, but the story has already flipped:
Florence Copper now producing → transition to multi-asset operator DONE
Gibraltar output ripping (+50% YoY) → cash engine fully online
Costs controlled (low C1 + fixed inputs) while copper trades elevated
This is the key disconnect:
→ Market pricing assumes ~
$4 copper
→ Reality: spot still elevated → margins expanding HARD
2026 setup is where it gets serious:
~150M lbs Cu production profile
EBITDA scaling toward ~
$800M range at current pricing
Cost structure remains competitive vs peers
Now look at valuation:
Trading ~4x EV/EBITDA vs peers pushing 8x+ in a bull cycle
That gap doesn’t stay forever.
If this rerates even modestly, upside repricing can be aggressive — not linear.
This isn’t a “hope trade” anymore.
This is a de-risked growth + margin expansion story in a strong commodity tape.
