Feb. 2 at 2:17 AM
As shown on the attached graph,
$KALV FY26 - FY35 analyst consensus revenue estimates are consistent with the 10-year revenue forecasts prepared by the managements of 3 peer commercial-stage bios (CTIC, KDMN & SRRA) that were acquired for enterprise values ranging from
$1.7B to
$1.9B within 15 months of FDA approval.
Based on KALV's Q325 10Q, Sebetralstat generates competitive gross margins (91%).
Our simple question, if analysts forecast Sebetralstat to generate the same sales at roughly the same gross margins, does that suggest KALV would be worth the same (
$1.7 to
$1.9B) if KALV is ever acquired?
This is not investment advice. New drugs are generally worth some multiple and/or NPV of projected sales, so we're simply trying to understand the upside if KALV is ever acquired (i.e. competing HAE therapies).
Per Seeking Alpha, KALV's market cap is ~
$800MM where cash more or less = debt (so EV is about the same)
$IONS $THTX $XBI $IBB
NOTE: SRRA was acquired before PDUFA
