Apr. 10 at 12:51 PM
Mizuho⬆️
$ALKS' PT to
$53 from
$45 & reiterated at an Outperform rating
CNTA -
$LLY AVDL
$TAK JAZZ ESALY JNJ
Mizuho said: We update our model ahead of what we expect to be solid 1Q26 results.
We forecast 1Q26 revenue of
$364M (vs.
$365M Bloomberg consensus) and GAAP EPS of-
$0.47 (vs. -
$0.59 cons), driven primarily by a one-time
$40M Avadel transaction-related charge and increased R&D to initiate Phase 3 studies for alixorexton. However, we expect adjusted EBITDA of
$37M (vs.
$30-50M guidance) to be positive. We model in-line sales for core products (Aristada, Lybalvi, and Vivitrol). 1Q26 will include Lumryz sales for the first-time -- a likely investor focus -- for which we forecast
$40M.
We raise our price target from
$45 to
$53, reflecting greater confidence that alixorexton will be first to market and higher POS (35% to 65%) for alixorexton sales forecast in NT2.
We continue to view ALKS as underappreciated, particularly given the valuation on the announced Lilly/Centessa transaction.
