Jul. 19 at 7:51 PM
$ALMS Anyone looking at the unusually large put position in Alumis, specifically the 30,000+ open Oct ’25
$2.50 puts, here’s how I’m interpreting it:
Yes, it’s a big number (~3M shares notional), and yes, the options chain is generally illiquid. But rather than a directional bearish bet or a hedge on dilution (which seems unlikely given the ~
$700M in cash, this setup, IMO, looks more like a range-bound premium strategy.
Consider this:
• There was notable call OI in the July
$5 and
$7.50 strikes -- now expired -- which likely reflects short call selling into strength
• On the flip side, those Oct
$2.50 puts may be cash-secured puts -- positioning to accumulate lower if it pulls back, while collecting premium
• This reflects a neutral to modestly bullish stance, expecting the stock to stay contained between that
$2.50–
$5.00 zone for now
• No major open long calls or long puts elsewhere in the chain -- which supports a view that this is more about volatility suppression and yield harvesting, not directional conviction
Could be an institutional player playing both sides: collecting premium from short-dated calls above the range and selling downside puts below it -- happy to own it lower, not chasing upside, and not expecting a collapse either.
Just my read, FWIW
