Mar. 15 at 2:37 AM
$ELTX If you assume ~95/135 patients are MRD-positive (the highest-risk group in resected pancreatic cancer), historical DFS is usually ~6–10 months. With that population mix, you normally wouldn’t expect a long delay in events unless something is slowing recurrence.
A rough model with equal MRD distribution across trial and placebo arms suggests a baseline DFS of around ~9–10 months. For the trial timeline to slip like this, the treatment arm would likely need to be meaningfully longer — something like ~15–18 months — implying a hazard ratio of ~0.5–0.6.
In pancreatic MRD that would be a VERY strong signal. Many oncology approvals occur around HR ~0.7, so anything near ≤0.6 would be notable and could support a registrational path, buyout/partnering interest, and support an MC trajectory towards 1 Billion.
