Jan. 30 at 6:55 PM
$SPRO for all the “buyout” pumpers on here trying to scam everyone:
Translating that into equity value
Step 1: SPRO royalty cash flow (base case)
Assume:
• Peak sales:
$800M
• Royalty to SPRO: ~10% (illustrative but realistic)
• Peak royalty revenue:
$80M/year
• Operating margin on royalties: ~90%
Step 2: Apply pharma multiple
• Use 4×–6× peak royalty EBITDA
• Value range:
$320M–480M
Add:
• Net cash
• Pipeline option value
That gets you to roughly:
⸻
Most likely buyout valuation range
$400M –
$700M enterprise value
This is the center-mass outcome, not the extremes.
⸻
What that means per share (important)
Assuming:
• ~150–170M fully diluted shares (reasonable post-approval assumption)
You get:
$2.50 –
$4.50 per share
