Jan. 23 at 6:03 PM
$PTON has roughly
$3 per share in cash and is expected to generate about
$500M in EBITDA and
$250M in free cash flow. There is meaningful room for improvement if management takes more decisive action or if an activist investor gets involved—for example, continuing to spend roughly
$250M annually on sales and marketing despite year-over-year revenue declines, along with nearly
$400M in administrative costs. The market’s core concern remains confidence in management’s ability to execute, making the upcoming 2/5 earnings call an important catalyst.
While the stock could retest the tariff selloff low of
$4.63, that scenario seems unlikely. From current levels, the risk-reward appears skewed to the upside. Peloton remains the leader in connected health and fitness, with a highly engaged, almost cult-like member base, and any positive commentary could quickly push the stock back into double digits.
