Apr. 23 at 4:36 PM
$INBX Why still has 5–10x move in front of it.
Management has been saying ~
$500M peak each for Ewing + chondrosarcoma -
$1B combined.
This level makes sense with literally no approved systemic therapy in either indication.
Look at what similar rare oncology drugs have actually done. Larotrectinib/entrectinib in NTRK fusions and pemigatinib in FGFR2+ cholangiocarcinoma are hitting
$400–800M+ peak sales at premium orphan pricing with strong data and good penetration.
For
$INBX to hit that
$1B combined number they basically need solid pricing, high share in the metastatic/recurrent setting, and some label expansion, especially perioperative for chondrosarcoma. The recent liver mets safety data from the CRC update helps here too.
With just chondro + Ewing you’re probably looking at
$4–5B of value at 4-5x peak sales (
$190–240/share, assuming slight dilution). Add 4L accelerated approval and it moves into the
$5.5–6.5B range pretty easily (
$260–310/share).
