matrick
Oct 21, 1:16 AM
$PR Scenario Analysis Under a Split Congress
If midterms produce a divided government (e.g., a Democratic White House with a Republican House or Senate, or vice-versa), price expectations generally split into three key macroeconomic scenarios:
SCENARIO 1: Baseline Gridlock
Expected Range:
$75 –
$90
• Legislative standstill limits major tax or energy policy shifts
• Market reverts to long-term structural supply/demand fundamentals
SCENARIO 2: Gridlock + Macro Expansion / Geopolitical Tension
Expected Range:
$90 –
$110+
• Supply constraints or regional conflict keep risk premiums elevated
• Mirror periods like mid-2000s or 2022–2023 gridlock surges
SCENARIO 3: Gridlock + Macro Slowdown / Recession
Expected Range:
$55 –
$70
• Weak global industrial demand overrides political gridlock
• Similar to late-2008 or late-2018 cyclical drops
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