Aug. 12 at 10:51 AM
Mark Zandi, chief economist at
$MCO , is clearly warning that the United States is “on the brink of a recession,” citing three primary warning signs:
The labor market is not showing net declines in payrolls, but job growth has been virtually flat since May, with downward revisions for May and June now suggesting a possible start of contraction.
More than 53% of the industries analyzed (around 400) reported job losses in July, with the healthcare sector as the only growing exception — a sign of broad-based weakening.
The unemployment rate can be misleading: it is not rising only because the labor force itself is shrinking, partly due to restrictive immigration policies that have reduced the number of available workers.
In summary, there is not yet a technical recession, but Zandi is sounding a clear alarm: stagnation in employment, “brutal” data revisions, and a weaker labor base are creating fertile ground for a recession if conditions do not improve soon.
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