Apr. 25 at 7:17 PM
$CHTR Loaded up at 179-180 near close on Friday and plan to add more on any further weakness. Charter is the most aggressive buyer of its own stock in the S&P 500. They are in peak capital expenditure mode right now with their rural fiber build and DOCSIS 4.0 network . I do not see huge changes occurring on the customer side, revenues or margins for few years outside of a few percentage points. People are freaking about the 120,000 broadband customer loss but forget to mention they have 29.5 million broadband customers so this is a 0.004% loss plus they added a 368,000 mobile lines. The CapEx is going to drop from the current 11-12 billion in 2026 to under
$8 billion shortly meaning FCF of
$7 billion in 2027 and
$8 billion in 2028. Given their debt-to-EBITDA targets, 75% of this FCF will be going to share repurchase. Easy math and at this price that would retire over 50% of the current shares in under 3 years and send this to a 2 PE ratio. Back to 200+ we go.
