Jun. 1 at 6:23 PM
$CHTR Trading at 5.4x EV/EBITDA — near the lowest multiple in its history.
22.7% FCF yield on
$22B of annual EBITDA. The debt is real but at 4.3x Debt/EBITDA it’s manageable for an infrastructure business.
The binary event is July 24 Q2 earnings. One number decides everything: broadband subscriber losses. If they drop from 120k to 60-80k the multiple re-rates immediately. If they accelerate above 150k the thesis fails.
Bear case is -44%. Bull case is +122%. Weighted expected return +47.6%.
What’s your read on the subscriber trend?