Mar. 17 at 9:14 PM
$ALT BIC - Scenario A — Conservative (
$20 stock)
Assumptions:
MASH success probability: 40%
Obesity = secondary / not dominant
Peak sales:
MASH:
$2–3B
Valuation multiple: ~3x sales
Enterprise Value ≈
$6–8B
Per share:
$6.5B ÷ 160M ≈
$40/share theoretical
Apply risk discount (~50%):
$20/share
Scenario B — Base Case (
$50 stock)
Assumptions:
MASH success: 60%
Obesity adds meaningful value
Peak sales:
MASH:
$4–5B
Obesity: optional upside
EV ≈
$10–12B
Per share:
$11B ÷ 160M ≈
$68/share
Apply execution + dilution discount:
~
$50/share
Scenario C — Bull Case (
$100+ stock)
Assumptions:
MASH success: high (70–80%)
Obesity differentiation proven (muscle preservation)
Dual indication pricing power
Peak sales:
MASH:
$6–8B
Obesity:
$5–10B (partial penetration)
EV:
$20–30B
Per share:
$25B ÷ 160M ≈
$156/share
Apply discount:
$80–120/share