Apr. 18 at 2:48 PM
$VRDN
if approved the setup is compelling. EV ex-cash is only ~
$460M for a
$2B market where the only competitor is drowning in 270 MDL hearing loss lawsuits. veligrotug showed lower hearing imp. rates than tepezza and ele printed zero clinical hearing loss in REVEAL-1. not a minor edge in today’s liability environment.
march 30 crash candle printed 23M volume at RSI 22, textbook capitulation. volume cluster
$18-21 acts as a magnet and we’re entering the pre-PDUFA window where these names start moving.
honestly
$22-25 is the realistic first stop — 38-50% fib and the gap zone.
$28 gets heavy, loaded with people who bought
$25-30 before the crash.
$28-35 possible in a strong scenario but not base case.
if CRL the
$12 cash floor is real.
$875M plus kissei and DRI deals confirm pipeline value regardless. brutal day down 35-45% but buyers step in at
$12-13. only breaks if CRL flags a data gap not labeling.
asymmetric. risking
$3-4 to make
$8-12 with a hard catalyst date.
not financial advice
