Dec. 27 at 12:18 PM
$OMER hey to Steve an others I was 100% wrong about those 2029 notes. They do in fact remain convertible. Which means OMER still has in the books
$70M on the books.
If the 2029 converts fully convert at
$6.18, OMER issues ~11.4M shares — about 17% dilution — in exchange for eliminating
$70.5M of debt.
But the gloom and doom is overreach even if they did convert, especially with a share price far above the conversion price.
Why?
A) The dilution is already modeled
• Analysts already include:
• 11.4M potential shares
• The market knows the notes are in the money
• This is not a surprise issuance
Any Hedged shares unwind cleanly. Thes were shares shorted as a hedge not directional shorts.
If holders convert to shares they
• Receive shares
• Deliver them to close shorts
This is:
• Non-market selling
• Not incremental supply hitting the tape