Aug. 28 at 6:28 PM
A few thoughts on
$RBRK. I keep seeing manipulation and all cybersecurity is down. Some cyber names are down and there is likely profit taking, but RBRK is different because it just had a major catalyst, earnings, and is down much more.
I like Rubrik and will probably own it again, but I sold in the 90s because valuation had gotten stretched and earnings were a binary event. RBRK has sold off on good earnings before.
The quarter itself was very good: ARR +33%, net new ARR +35%, revenue +38%, guidance raised, strong FCF. The issue was valuation and expectations. Adjusted net new cloud ARR was only about 20%, and the full-year guide implies slower net new ARR growth in the second half. Citi even questioned this on the call.
If you bought at
$60 or
$70 and watched it run over
$100, trimming some was simply risk management.
Analysts still raised targets today, including Citi from
$96 to
$130. The company is fine. The valuation got ahead of itself.
