Jun. 23 at 3:36 AM
$AC.TSX @OnTheBalance @airlineinvestor101 @veecee1 @Nordico @TradeForex
https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/
Jet fuel price last week came at USD
$119, which is about 20-25% higher than prewar. In CAD its about 30% higher.
AC would need about 4.5% higher PRASM to breakeven the price increase in Q3. And airline were targeting upto 20% increase on unsold (75%) inventory. Even if they get 15% increase on unsold inventory, it will be around 11% for Q3. Excluding airline inflation, we should get 4PP margin increment leading to incremental operating margin/EBITDA/FCF of about $ 250M. Comparing to 2025 without strike impact, we should get EBITDA Of about $ 1.55 B in Q3. Q4 should be close to $ 1.1 B. Adding 2026 EBITDA will be > $ 4B.
If oil falls further, which it might, we should get even better results.
2027 is setting up for a record year for AC.
$UAL and
$DAL will also experience similar outcomes and expect 2026 results to be stellar, similar or better than 2026 planned (pre war).
