May. 29 at 3:15 PM
$MDB its classic whipsaw:
$256LOW →
$413 AH high → ~
$338 close, drifting ~
$300 premarket.
Clean beat & raise:
- Q1:
$687.6M rev (+25% y/y) beat ~
$664M; adj EPS
$1.32 vs
$1.18.
- Atlas +29.4% (4th straight), ~75% of rev, ~
$2B run rate.
- Q2 guide
$729-734M (~
$30M beat). FY27 raised to
$2.92-2.96B.
- RPO +69% to
$766M, ARR exp 121%, op margin 18%.
Why the move: Consumption model = expectations game. Ran 28% pre-print. Algos sold the beat first (last Q -22% memory), then ripped on guide in thin AH before fading.
Street: Bullish PTs - Cantor
$416, Canaccord
$400, BMO
$360, Baird
$335. Consensus to ~
$370-380.
Fair Value (FY28 ~
$3.5B rev,
$2.4B net cash):
- 8x EV/S ≈
$380
- 9x ≈
$425
- 10x (AI) ≈
$465+
- 7x ≈
$335
At
$300-338, near low end of fair on Atlas/RPO strength. Cheap on growth, rich on FCF (GAAP losses + comp). AI not material yet.
Classic MDB volatility - microstructure + sentiment flip.
(Not advice. DYOR)
