Mar. 9 at 12:27 PM
$SLS REGAL P3: The Math Predicts a Historic HR Breakdown 🔬The Survivor Gap: 126 enrolled, only 72/80 events by Dec '25 = 54 survivors (43%). It's been 23 months since full recruitment (Apr '24).The Logic: CR2 AML control mOS is <10 months. If the control group followed history, >85% would have reached an "event" by month 20. The 43% survival rate proves GPS is carrying the curve.HR Forecast: Using
$HR \approx mOS_{Control} / mOS_{GPS}$. With Control at 10 and GPS likely 25+ months (due to increased Phase 3 dosing frequency), HR will crash below 0.45, likely hitting 0.35–0.40.ShutterstockIntegrity: IDMC oversight + 6-year trial duration. If GPS didn't work, 80 events would have been reached years ago. The "delay" is actually the proof of efficacy.Verdict: Potential HR of 0.35-0.45. This isn't just a pass; it’s a clinical home run.#SLS #AML #Biotech #FDA #GPS #StockMarket
