Jul. 16 at 10:18 PM
$LIDR
Bull Case: The market values AEye below the cash in its bank account (~
$65M market cap vs.
$77M cash) — so the tech, patents, and defense business come free. Apollo is a differentiated sensor, the company runs asset-light, and it survived the crash that bankrupted its bigger rival Luminar. Defense is opening up: Chinese competitors are banned, Western suppliers scarce. Revenue grew 60% last quarter. If earnings show real orders landing, below-cash stocks can re-rate violently.
Bear Case: It’s priced below cash for a reason:
$101K in revenue last quarter against an
$8.3M loss, burning ~
$9M a quarter with ~18 months of runway. Revenue keeps missing estimates badly, the founder keeps selling shares, and defense deals are slow. Luminar’s entire LiDAR business just sold in bankruptcy for
$33M — telling acquirers to wait for the fire sale, not pay a premium.