Aug. 28 at 8:58 AM
$VFS
The opportunity I see is not really the cars. It’s the electric scooter market.
Vietnam has around 8 million petrol scooters on the road, and the government is actively pushing the transition to electric, particularly in major cities. That creates a huge replacement market over time.
What caught my attention is that VinFast is already operating at scale. It delivered around 286,000 electric two wheelers in Q2, up 311% YoY, and around 429,000 in H1, up 275%.
Vietnam could just be the starting point. If VinFast can take a meaningful share of the transition in Indonesia and the wider Southeast Asian market, the opportunity becomes enormous.
There are obviously risks: competition, margins, cash burn and execution.
But I don't need VinFast to dominate the global car market. I think the real bet is whether it can become a major player in Asia's transition from petrol to electric two-wheelers. If it does, I think the current valuation could look very small in hindsight.
