Jul. 21 at 8:08 PM
$TNYA closed
$0.82 +0.78% today. XBI ripped +2.31% recovering yesterday’s flush. we participated but didn’t join the sector bounce with real strength. -1.5% relative today after yesterday’s +3.2%.
net two-day scoreboard: still +1.7% relative to XBI. eight-session net: +4.5% relative outperformance while sector has been net negative. we’re not the leader but we’re not the bagholder either.
session range
$0.80-
$0.83. still coiling in the same
$0.77-0.83 zone we’ve been in for a week. volume 1.21M = 33% of avg. no distribution. no capitulation. same quiet accumulation pattern.
on the compliance question — some folks are pushing “too many shares = R/S coming” narrative. that’s not how it works. reverse splits get triggered by low PRICE not high share count. TNYA has ~62M shares which is low-to-mid for a 3-time-diluted clinical biotech. INO and OCGN with 200M+ are the “too many shares” cases, not us.
what’s actually happening: nasdaq deficiency notice from jan 28, 180-day cure ends monday july 27. management’s likely play is tier transfer to nasdaq capital market. same ticker, same shares, buys 180 days into 2027. new CFO started july 13 with 1.65M options struck at
$0.8365 (10-year term). you don’t give a new CFO 10-year options at that strike if you think R/S is coming.
should see tier transfer 8-K sometime this week. if we get to friday with no filing i pay closer attention. if we get to monday jul 27 with nothing, we escalate.
no thesis-break triggers firing. no downgrades. no offering docs. 12.4% short interest steady. clean structural setup with catalyst calendar intact.
aug 5 q2 earnings. TN-201 durability at AHA november. piper
$40 PT. current
$0.82.
still holding all 615k.
nfa