Jan. 15 at 6:26 PM
$BITF $RIOT $HIVE $DGXX Yesterday I mentioned exploring a new category for Follow the Watts: companies on the path but not yet arrived. After digging into the candidates, the initial scope is set.
The thesis covers operators with contracted revenue. That leaves a category uncovered: companies with secured power and clear AI infrastructure intent, but no hyperscaler or neocloud contracts yet. Four make the cut: BITF, RIOT, HIVE, DGXX.
Bitfarms has 1.2 GW across five countries with Stronghold's Pennsylvania sites adding grid-friendly curtailment capability. Riot controls over 2 GW, including a gigawatt in Corsicana that's already drawn Microsoft and Amazon interest for adjacent development. HIVE runs a "twin-turbo" model where Bitcoin mining cash flow funds HPC buildout across three continents. Digi Power X is smallest and earliest-stage, but their ARMS modular pods just achieved Tier III certification and the first B200 cluster is complete.
The distinction matters. Pipeline companies have the precondition (power) without the validation (contracts). They're earlier on the same curve the core four traveled. APLD had Jamestown before CoreWeave. WULF had Lake Mariner before Fluidstack. The pattern repeats: secure power, build capability, wait for the market to find you.
Implementation requires a different frame than the main thesis. No revenue projections. No contract math. Just the assets, the development status, and the specific catalyst that would graduate each to the thesis proper. For BITF, that's the Stronghold integration delivering a hyperscaler LOI. For Riot, it's Corsicana Phase 2 converting Microsoft proximity into Microsoft paper. The criteria are concrete. When they hit, the company moves from pipeline to thesis.
Maintenance overhead is the binding constraint. The thesis took months. I'm one person. The pipeline page needs to be structured for sustainable updates: monthly check-ins rather than continuous monitoring, clear graduation triggers rather than subjective assessment, minimal prose that ages gracefully. The page exists to track, not to advocate.
What this creates is a layered system. Core thesis with contracted revenue at the center. Pipeline with secured power but pending contracts at the periphery. As pipeline companies graduate, the thesis expands. As thesis companies deliver, the thesis validates. Each layer reinforces the other. The pattern that worked for the first six should work for the next four, and the next after that.
Follow the watts. The watts are accumulating.
