May. 15 at 9:40 PM
$BATL $SKYQ $WTI $USO Asia is the most dependent on the Strait of Hormuz oil flow, so it was always the first region to be impacted materially.
First, all poor countries will face fuel shortages, but as these shortages shake governments, panic buying will pull demand away from wealthier Asian countries.
This ripples into increased buying for crude from wealthier Asian countries. This starts to tighten crude supplies from the West.
Higher buying from Asia tightens crude storage in the West, forcing refineries there to compete to keep barrels at home.
We are 2-3 weeks away from this last step. Onshore oil inventories in the US will have to decline first, and since the US is releasing the largest amount of volumes from the SPR, the bid for US crude will continue. That is, until the US runs out of excess crude...
https://www.hfir.com/p/wctw-the-oil-market-breaking-point-e20
