Aug. 13 at 1:46 PM
Closed
$GM at +18.7%. Good trade, not a home run.
Why I sold:
• Tariffs are a real cash tax this year. Hard to model, hard to dodge near term.
• Warranty and quality costs crept higher. Slow leak on margins.
• Free cash flow lagged my expectations. Earnings strong, cash conversion softer.
• Competition is heating up. Chinese EV brands are scaling in Europe with sharp pricing. If that wave reaches North America, the price umbrella narrows.
$BYDDY $NIO $TSLA
GM is still a solid operator. NA trucks and SUVs are strong. EV share improved. Valuation is low.
But risk and reward matters. Around
$55, I can sketch
$70 with clean execution and tariff relief. I can also sketch
$30 if the price war gets loud and costs bite. That is risking about
$25 to make about
$15. Not my kind of bet.
I took the win and moved the capital to a cleaner setup. I will revisit
$GM if the picture changes. Respect the execution, just choosing a better fight for now.
