Sep. 15 at 9:31 AM
$GEO GEO Group reported Q2 2025 results alongside a
$300 million share repurchase program, an attempt to signal undervaluation. Buybacks do not change the fundamentals but do provide a short-term narrative of confidence. The company also closed the sale of its Lawton facility, freeing capital or at least shedding an asset that had become a liability. Analysts call the stock “cheap” post-earnings but are still wary, noting the obvious: GEO’s fate is tied less to operational execution than to legal & regulatory outcomes. Until prison contracts & ICE facility exposures face less scrutiny, the label “undervalued” is academic. Risks dominate: ongoing legal & regulatory uncertainty, reputational drag, dependence on contract renewals, & the political volatility of U.S. immigration & criminal justice policy. GEO’s revenue stream is not a business so much as a policy decision, & policy can change quickly.
