filecrux
Oct 24, 2:11 PM
$FLG We did a deep dive on Flagstar Bank.
✂️ The bank cut its 2027 profit guide to
$400 million to
$500 million from
$800 million to
$900 million, about 47% at the midpoints, and pushed the old goals to 2028
⚠️ Credit is the bear case, since loans 30 to 89 days late jumped 44% to
$530 million and a city rent freeze began October 1 as
$8.4 billion of apartment loans mature or reset in 2027
📈 The bull case is a delay, not a loss, because at
$10.38 the stock trades at 6 to 6.5 times the 2028 earnings goal and about 67% of tangible book value with warrants
🏦 A 12.38% core capital ratio sits
$1.2 billion above 10.5%, the low end of its target range, which leaves room to absorb losses while the plan plays out
📅 Fourth-quarter results, due around late January 2027, test whether profit lands in the
$18 million to
$28 million the 2026 guide leaves and the provision stays within the implied
$66 million to
$76 million
Full report linked in the replies.
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