Mar. 14 at 1:44 PM
$FNGD ,
$XOM,
$DIA ,
$UVIX - even after the bombs stop dropping the price of oil will remain elevated above normal levels for months. Oil shocks have historically preceded credit crises
Period Oil spikes =
1973 OPEC embargo recession
1979 Iran revolution recession
2007-2008 oil hit
$147 financial crisis
Rising oil plus credit stress — feels similar to the pre-2008 period to me. when oil rises sharply it can create stress that is ALREADY showing up in private credit markets, and restrictions on those who want to take their money out of Blackrock, Blue Owl and others.