Feb. 7 at 3:14 PM
$MOBX ran some simulations with
$PRSO.
Just had to calculate realistically to gauge strategy.
Probability
Given the unusual level of public back-and-forth plus the NDA/diligence disclosure, I’d frame it as:
• 35% probability of a definitive deal announced
• 55% probability of some strategic outcome (acquisition, asset sale, or structured partnership)
• 20% probability it breaks down with no transaction
Outcomes
The combined reported ARR would only require a 4x to get Mobix above
$1.00 with
$98M shares outsiding.
Any growth or synergy would require lower multiplier to get to
$1.00/share.
Fair comp range for Mobix:
Defense-tech peers: 6×–10× EV/Revenue
Semiconductor peers: 3× to ~10× EV/Revenue
Do your own math and DD but my realistic summary:
80% probability of
$PRSO deal
Forward look market ARR of
$45M in 2027
6x valuation.
Share price
$1.35 based on share count increase to 200M to get deal done. ✅
