sir_sip_a_lot
Oct 27, 4:02 PM
$ABCL
Part 2
**Why that may already be priced in:**
- The stock closed Monday at **
$12.08**, down about 20% from its
$15.02 52-week high, but still up 118% over the past year. Analyst targets average
$16.82, so optimism is already baked in.
- The big unknowns are still open: no Phase 3 design, trial count, or budget yet, and equity is the stated funding mechanism. Management itself said the top-line data is 4 weeks only, and the single-dose effect should diminish by week 12.
- The trial was small — 92 women, 4 weeks — and comparisons to Veozah/Lynkuet are cross-trial, not head-to-head. Veozah carries a liver black-box warning and daily dosing, which is ABCL635's opening, but Phase 3 still has to prove durability over 12 weeks plus 52-week safety.
- Last time around, the pattern was sell-the-news: down 7.1% on poster day Oct 22, then back up 4% Friday, with no bad news surfacing. The Cantor conference announcement in September was essentially flat.
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