Aug. 8 at 9:27 PM
$ABCL
At roughly a ~
$2B current valuation,
$5B is about a 2.5× rerating. For that to become fundamentally defensible, I’d want Monday to show three things simultaneously: a clearly statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction in hot flashes versus placebo, durability supporting ABCL635’s long-acting/monthly proposition, and a very clean safety profile—particularly no liver signal.
I’d frame Monday roughly as:
Good data →
$2.5–3.5B becomes reasonable
Excellent/differentiated data →
$4–5B becomes defensible
Exceptional data + obvious monthly-dosing advantage →
$5B+ becomes conceivable
And there’s an asymmetry here:
$5B doesn’t require ABCL635 to capture anything close to the entire VMS market. Once randomized Phase 2 efficacy is demonstrated, even a probability-adjusted fraction of a multibillion-dollar commercial opportunity can add substantial value to a company starting around ~
$2B.
