Jun. 20 at 4:49 PM
$ABCL
Is biotech about to explode?
The rumors hitting the tape this morning are massive: AbbVie is reportedly closing in on an
$11B buyout of Apogee Therapeutics (
$APGE). Big Pharma is clearly willing to pay an extreme premium (~60%) for true differentiation in the
$22B+ Atopic Dermatitis (AD) market. Apogee’s lead asset, APG777, offers a game-changing 3-to-6 month dosing interval. With Dupixent bringing in over
$12B a year, everyone wants to escape the standard chronic, 2-week injection cycle.
When an
$11B deal resets the baseline, smart money immediately looks at who's left on the field. The remaining independent players suddenly hold highly valuable, scarce assets.
I ran the math using risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) models and probability handicapping. If you want to see where the next massive valuation re-rating is coming from in biotech, grab a coffee and let's dive into the data.
