Sep. 28 at 5:55 PM
$DERM 2027 revenue estimate:
$147 million
Gross margin: 67% → gross profit =
$98.5 million
Operating expenses from Q2 filings annualized and adjusted growth → estimated
$60 million
EBIT =
$98.5M -
$60M =
$38.5 million
Interest expense:
$1.5 million on
$25M debt
Pre-tax income =
$38.5M -
$1.5M =
$37 million
Tax rate = 21%
Net income =
$37M × (1 - 0.21) =
$29.23 million
Shares outstanding: 26 million
EPS =
$29.23M / 26M =
$1.12
Assume PE = 20 (conservative for growth)
Fair value share =
$1.12 × 20 =
$22.40
Discount rate: 10% typical pharma cost of equity
Discount the 2027 EPS fair value 2 years back to 2025 using PV = FV / (1 + r)^n:
PV =
$22.40 / (1 + 0.10)^2 =
$22.40 / 1.21 =
$18.51
Current price ~
$7.06 vs. intrinsic PV fair value
$18.51
