Jul. 23 at 10:52 AM
$GERN The Roadmap to
$18 -
$25 (MDS + MF Expansion) 🚀📊
🩸 LR-MDS Capture (30% US Target):
• US Target Pool: ~15,400 ESA-refractory patients
• 30% Market Share = ~4,620 active US patients
• Annual Revenue: ~
$1.38B US + ~
$300M EU Royalty/Direct
• Standalone MDS Valuation:
$10.00 –
$14.00
1️⃣ Phase 1: Phase 3 Catalyst (2H 2026)
• IMpactMF Interim OS Readout in H2 2026 (~35% events)
• Unlocks +5,000 high-urgency R/R Myelofibrosis patients
• Implied PT:
$6.00 –
$9.00
2️⃣ Phase 2: Label Expansion (2027 – 2029)
• FDA sNDA / EMA approval for R/R Myelofibrosis
• Launches into market with almost no existing competition
• Implied PT:
$10.00 –
$14.00
3️⃣ Phase 3: Combined Peak Scale (2029 – 2031)
• 30% Share in MDS (~4.6k pts) + 35% Share in MF (~1.7k pts)
• Combined Peak Sales:
$2.0B –
$2.4B (~
$1.30+ EPS)
• Implied PT:
$18.50 –
$25.00+
Next Catalyst: Q2 Earnings on Aug 5th at 8:00 AM ET! 📈
