May. 24 at 6:11 PM
$GERN More from Claude: "On whether the H2 2026 IDMC interim can yield "stop for efficacy":
"This is genuinely plausible, not just wishful thinking: IMpactMF's primary objective is overall survival, and the trial was designed specifically based on the promising OS signal seen in IMbark. The IMbark data — a hazard ratio of 0.512 — is a very strong effect size. If IMpactMF replicates even a somewhat diluted version of that effect in a randomized setting, the IDMC's pre-specified stopping boundary for efficacy could be crossed. Trials are stopped early for efficacy when the pre-specified number of events (deaths) has occurred and the efficacy boundary is crossed — it's less about calendar time and more about event accumulation. The delays in the interim analysis timing actually reflect the trial taking longer to accumulate the required number of events, which paradoxically can sometimes be a positive sign ... It is not, as the commenter implies, a sign the drug is failing."
